I was going to be a Math Teacher, not a lawyer. I received a BA in Math & a BS in Education from the University of Cincinnati WAY back in 1979. But THEN I took the LSAT and ended up making a right angle turn into law school. [I see what you did there…]
Those math things still swim around in my brain. I’m sure the analytical side helped some in law school [although the lack of reading WORDS, not equations did NOT]. Today I look hard at numbers… statistics surrounding cycling mostly… and the numbers… are not good.
The worst year ever for cycling deaths, until recently, was way back in 1975 when 1002 riders were killed in the USA. Back then some 79% of those killed on bikes were… KIDS… while only 21% were adults…
But a trend soon started… I was part of that trend. I grew up riding bikes in the late 60s/early 70s and was 18 in 1975. Like MANY adults, I just kept on riding and riding and RIDING the bike. Overall we know that adults started riding more and more. In the 1980s Triathlons and FITNESS became popular for adults while kids started riding less and less and started getting driven around to Play Dates. As time marched on, Adults rode more, Kids rode LESS and while fatalities overall declined, the data shifted in the 80s from Kids being the majority of those killed on the roads to adults, mostly men.
For DECADES following the very dangerous 70s the data skewed DOWN. On average, fewer riders were killed in the 80s than the 70s. Fewer riders were killed in the 90s than the 80s. Fewer riders were killed in the early 2000s than the 90s.
By 2010 we had gone from a high of 1002 fatalities in 1975 to a low of 621 in 2010.
The same Trend is seen in both pedestrian data and motorcycle data – fewer and fewer walkers killed on the streets – fewer and fewer motorcycle riders died.
Then… something happened. Something dramatic… like “the Earth was struck by meteor” dramatic
I’m not quite sure WHAT it was but there was an extreme SHIFT right around 2010 …
Since then …
The roads have become a LOT more dangerous for the most vulnerable road users
Since then …
the decades long decline in cycling/pedestrian fatalities didn’t just flatten out, the number of people killed riding bicycles [and walking around] jumped up, up UP significantly!!
After that low of 621 riders killed in 2010 the numbers increased to the point that in 2022 there were 1084 cyclists killed. More than the 1002 in 1975 and The MOST EVER recorded in one year in the USA. Today 90% of cyclists killed on the roads are adults [80% adult men, 10% adult women, 8+% boys, 1+% girls]
The same dramatic decline/RISE pattern is seen in pedestrian deaths… and motorcyclist deaths. Basically, the most vulnerable users of the roadway are being run down and killed in greater and greater numbers each year over the past decade and a half.
As a math person I understand that Correlation Does NOT Imply Causation… cum hoc ergo propter hoc
…but…
The charts below would seem to create at least prima facie evidence, as we lawyers say, for opening a discussion on a national level about distraction and whether the increased use since 2010 of cell phones and social media by motorists is “A” cause of so many more people being killed on the roads in the past decade and a half…
I mean, did people just get worse at riding a bike, and walking around, and operating a motorcycle… all at the same time – right around 2010… so that people in each of these 3 very distinct groups of vulnerable road users just happened to put themselves in harms way in greater numbers starting in 2010 than they did in the previous 4 decades???
…or maybe, just maybe, do people driving cars SUCK a lot more at driving cars than they did before 2010?
It seems to me that something else going on that needs to be studied in DEPTH..
Here at the BikeLawyer’s World Headquarters We track data. We look for hotspots- roads/intersections where crashes involving cyclists keep happening. We will work with local cycling groups and/or local/state/national groups to improve infrastructure, roads, bike lanes, trails… we will work to improve safety & reduce risk – we will work to STOP THE KILLING of cyclists & pedestrians and motorcyclists on our nation’s roadways…
As Sgt Phil Esterhaus used to say on Hill Street Blues – ” LET’S BE CAREFUL OUT THERE”
Tags: bicycle, cellphone, crash, data, FARS, fatal, injury, social media, statistics
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